Abstract
A one-dimensional Stick-slip model, which is introduced to explain the fractal features of earthquake phenomena is applied to describe he destructive earthquake occurrences in central and south-west Japan. Space time patterns of events are simulated and the predictablity is discussed. On the basis of the “Block-rotation model”, epicenters of historical destructive earthquakes with magnitude 6.4 or greater are relocated to the tectonic or block boundary lines. This model has revealed that these events show a periodicity of about 1000 years of active and quiet alternative intervals. In each active period, individual block boundary lines generate several large earthquakes without overlapping rupture areas. The space-time pattern and moment release rate for the Hanaore-Kongo Fault Line (HKFL) can be represented well with the one-dimensional stick-slip model. The seismic coupling of large offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough is also found to be well modeled by this model. This model may be useful for estimation of seismic risk in this region. Further, this model can be applied to see the situation of the M7.2 Kobe earthquake and interpret this earthquake to be the event that comes from the block structure in later section.
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