Space—time correlations between inland earthquakes in central Japan and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough: Implication for destructive earthquake prediction

Abstract

Based on the tectonic framework of central Japan, including the surrounding submarine areas, the space-time relationship between destructive inland earthquakes of magnitudes M 6.4 or greater and great offshore earthquakes along the Nankai trough was examined. From east to west, four tectonic lines are defined as lines linking active faults: the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line (ISTL), the Tsurugawan-Isewan tectonic line (TITL), the Hanaore-Kongo fault line (HKFL), and the Arima-Takatsuki tectonic line (ATTL). The TITL divides central Japan into the Chubu and Kinki districts, and probably extends southward to the Nankai trough. The Chubu district is subdivided into four blocks by boundary lines linking NW-SE trending active faults having left-lateral strike slip. In the Kinki district, N-S trending, active reverse, steep-dip faults are dominant in the triangular region north of the Median Tectonic line, between the TITL and HKFL, forming a basin-and-range province. Starting from 1586 A.D., a seismic space-time sequence of high seismic activity in the Chubu district in which earthquake occurrence migrates from the eastern to western tectonic lines of central Japan was identified. The sequence also revealed that inland earthquakes preceded great offshore earthquakes which occurred along the Nankai trough. It was also found that a destructive earthquake tends to occur on the HKFL within 30 years after the occurrence on the TITL, and that the western Nankai trough generated great earthquakes of M≥7.0 at intervals ranging from 8 to 49 years after the HKFL earthquakes. If the eastern Nankai trough is coupled with the western Nankai trough, a forthcoming greater earthquake measuring M 8.5 may be expected. Since such great earthquakes are always accompanied by large tsunamis, much attention should be focussed on possible tsunami disasters along the Pacific coast of central Japan. Based on its tectonic structure, a tectonic model of central Japan is proposed. The seismic space-time sequence, which attempts to explain the cause of the sequential earthquake generation, is also discussed.