Modeling Fuel Treatment Leverage: Encounter Rates, Risk Reduction, and Suppression Cost Impacts

Matthew Thompson,Karin Riley,Dan Loeffler,Jessica Haas

doi:10.3390/f8120469

Abstract

The primary theme of this study is the cost-effectiveness of fuel treatments at multiple scales of investment. We focused on the nexus of fuel management and suppression response planning, designing spatial fuel treatment strategies to incorporate landscape features that provide control opportunities that are relevant to fire operations. Our analysis explored the frequency and magnitude of fire-treatment encounters, which are critical determinants of treatment efficacy. Additionally, we examined avoided area burned, avoided suppression costs, and avoided damages, and combined all three under the umbrella of leverage to explore multiple dimensions with which to characterize return on investment. We chose the Sierra National Forest, California, USA, as our study site, due to previous work providing relevant data and analytical products, and because it has the potential for large, long-duration fires and corresponding potential for high suppression expenditures. Modeling results generally confirmed that fire-treatment encounters are rare, such that median suppression cost savings are zero, but in extreme years, savings can more than offset upfront investments. Further, reductions in risk can expand areas where moderated suppression response would be appropriate, and these areas can be mapped in relation to fire control opportunities.

Highlights

Wildland fires, an integral component of many ecosystems, can pose grave safety concerns, result in significant socioeconomic damages, and negatively affect provision of ecosystem services.Changes in climate resulting in warmer, drier conditions along with extended fire season lengths suggest a future of increasing fire activity [1,2,3]
We present results from a case study landscape encompassing the Sierra National Forest (SNF) in California, USA, building from recent geographically relevant research on fuel treatment opportunities, fire simulation, risk assessment, and incident response planning [33,54,55,56]
The SNF has over two dozen species of trees, with California red fir (Abies magnifica), white fir (Abies concolor), ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), and incense-cedar (Calocedrus decurrens) among the most commonly found in the SNF

Summary

Introduction

An integral component of many ecosystems, can pose grave safety concerns, result in significant socioeconomic damages, and negatively affect provision of ecosystem services.Changes in climate resulting in warmer, drier conditions along with extended fire season lengths suggest a future of increasing fire activity [1,2,3]. Given a likely future of increasing costs and losses, the need to develop more cost-effective and sustainable approaches to managing wildland fire is apparent [13,14,15,16]. A broad spectrum of fire management interventions is available, with varying degrees of capacity needs, costs, and effectiveness. These approaches can be generally characterized as preventing human-caused ignitions [17,18], preparing for and responding to unplanned ignitions [19,20,21], and, our focus here, implementing hazardous fuel and forest restoration treatments in advance of fires [22,23]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion