Abstract
In late December 2019, a series of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) cases emerged in Wuhan, and the outbreak of NCP began to spreadrapidly to the whole country and even overseaswithin a few days. The scientific and effective understanding of epidemic development is essentialfor the prevention and control. In this paper, based on the cumulative number of confirmedand cured cases reported daily by the National Health Committee, we propose a novel dynamic systemwith time-delay to describe the outbreak of NCP. The time-delay process is introduced todescribe the latent period and treatment cycle. Numerical simulations show that the parametersin the model are identified accurately, and the trend of the outbreak of NCP is effectivelysimulated. Moreover, the prediction for the tendency of NCP is provided for reference.Finally, we would conclude that the situation would be better and better under the currenteffective and efficient measures of government.
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