Model-based assessment of changes in the potential distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) according to climate change scenarios

Abstract

The tropical fire ant (TFA, Solenopsis geminata) is an aggressive fire ant species that can cause health problems in humans and damages ecosystems. The TFA can be found across the world, from North and South America to Africa, Asia, and Oceania; furthermore, it has been introduced into new areas by human transport or natural flights. In this study, species distribution modeling was applied to the TFA for the first time, and its potential distribution as a response to climate change was evaluated. This study used CLIMEX as the climate-specific species distribution modeling tool with the distribution data for TFA, current global meteorological data, and two types of climate change scenarios. Thus, although the climatic suitability of the TFA was assumed to decrease with climate change, its distribution limit was expected to increase. In addition, the difference between potential distributions predicted using Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 increased over time. In conclusion, even with an overall decrease in climatic suitability, in the future, the TFA will still be able to invade a new area that it cannot inhabit under the current climatic scenario. As the first study that predicts TFA distribution using a species distribution model, we expect that this study will provide the basic information for further TFA modeling and for setting up quarantine and control measures.