Abstract
This study evaluated the potential distribution of the potato tuber moth. This species severely impacts global potato production, especially in China and India, which have the world’s largest potato production. We developed two indices considering host plant availability and production in addition to climatic suitability, which was simulated using the CLIMEX model. Thus, three different indices were used to project potential distribution of the potato tuber moth under a climate change scenario: (1) climatic suitability (ecoclimatic index (EI)) (EIM), (2) climatic suitability combined with host plant availability (EIN1), and (3) climatic suitability combined with host plant production (EIN2). Under the current climate, EIM was high in southern India and central to southern China, while EIN1 and EIN2 were approximately 38% and 20% lower than EIM, respectively. Under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B, the potato tuber moth would probably not occur in India, but its distribution could be extended to the north, reaching N47°. The areas with the highest climatic suitability by potato tuber moth based on three indices were Sichuan and Karnataka in response to climate change. These areas require adequate pest control, such as prevention of spread through transport of potato seed or by using cold storage facilities.
Highlights
The potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella) is the world’s most significant potato (Solanum tuberosum) pest, originating from the Andean regions in South America [1]
Kroschel et al [2] used the insect life cycle modeling (ILCYM) model to assess the climate impacts of the potato tuber moth and suggested the essential data for planning pest management. Their result showed a little difference in predicting North and South America and this might be due to the fact that the distribution by Kroschel et al was a regulated simulation under the control, while this study showed potential distribution based on climate and host plant
This study combined the distribution of field potato and potato production with climatic suitability for the potato tuber moth projected using the CLIMEX model
Summary
The potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella) is the world’s most significant potato (Solanum tuberosum) pest, originating from the Andean regions in South America [1]. Current climate change has changed its range of distribution along with bad quarantine problems, resulting in its distribution in approximately 110 countries [2]. It has become a major threat to the potato production system around the world, including in China and India, where one third of the world’s potato production occurs [3,4]. China is the world’s largest potato producer, with an annual production of 99 million tons, 85% of which is produced in the northern part of the country because of the cool temperature and sunlight suitable for growing potatoes [5]. 70% of the potato production in India is carried out on the alluvial plain that includes the northern portion of the Ganges. Uttar Pradesh is the largest producer of potatoes in India.
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