Abstract
Climate change and invasive species are now seen as two major contributors to global biodiversity change. The combined effects of these two factors have serious implications for biodiversity and agriculture. Lantana camara L. (sensu lato) (lantana) is a woody shrub that is highly invasive in many countries of the world including South Africa where it has a profound impact on biodiversity, water resources and agriculture. Strategies to manage and control this highly noxious weed will benefit from information on its likely potential distribution under current and future climate. CLIMEX, a species distribution modelling software, was used to develop a process-oriented niche model to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Model calibration was carried out with phenological observations and geographic distribution records of lantana. The potential distribution of lantana under current climate showed a good match to its current distribution in South Africa. Under future scenarios, the climatically suitable areas for lantana were projected to contract in the northern provinces of Limpopo and Mpumalanga as well as coastal areas of Western Cape Province. However, lantana’s potential distribution may expand further inland into new areas in KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces. The results suggest that lantana management initiatives in areas where climatic suitability is likely to decline should focus on controlling the density of invasion rather than curbing range expansion. On the other hand, areas where climatic suitability is projected to increase will require ongoing monitoring to prevent further range expansions. Key words: CLIMEX, niche models, species distribution models, biotic invasions, weeds, climate change.
Highlights
The major reason for many deliberate introductions of non-native species throughout the world has been for the provision of benefits to human societies
The objectives of this study were (i) to use the CLIMEX modelling package to develop a model of the climate responses of lantana, and (ii) use this model to assess the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution in South Africa using two global climate models (GCM), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H based on the A1B and A2 SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100
A good fit was observed between model output and the current global distribution records as well as the current South African distribution
Summary
The major reason for many deliberate introductions of non-native species throughout the world has been for the provision of benefits to human societies. Shelter and aesthetic enjoyment are included among these benefits. Many of these introduced species have become invasive in natural as well as agricultural ecosystems (Groves et al, 2001). An invasive species is broadly defined as an introduced species that becomes established and spreads outside its native range (Jeschke and Strayer, 2005). Biological invasions have been the focus of much attention and research because it has led to increasing biotic homogenization of the Earth’s.
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