Mitigation Potential of Ecosystem-Based Forest Management under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Boreal-Temperate Forest Ecotone

Gabriel Landry,Caren Dymond,Yan Boulanger,Evelyne Thiffault,Lucas Moreau,Dominic Cyr

doi:10.3390/f12121667

Abstract

The forest sector can help reduce atmospheric CO2 through carbon (C) sequestration and storage and wood substitution of more polluting materials. However, climate change can have an impact on the C fluxes we are trying to leverage through forestry. We calculated the difference in CO2 eq. fluxes between ecosystem-based forest management and total forest conservation in the context of the temperate-boreal forest ecotone of Quebec (Canada), taking into account fluxes from forest ecosystems, wood product life cycle, and the substitution effect of wood products on markets. Over the 2020–2120 period, in the absence of climate change, ecosystem-based forest management and wood production caused average net annual emissions of 66.9 kilotonnes (kt) of CO2 eq. year−1 (relative to forest conservation), and 15.4 kt of CO2 eq. year−1 when assuming a 100% substitution effect of wood products. While management increased the ecosystem C sink, emissions from degradation of largely short-lived wood products caused the system to be a net source. Moreover, climate warming would decrease the capacity of ecosystems to sequester C and cause a shift towards more hardwood species. Our study highlights the need to adapt the industrial network towards an increased capacity of processing hardwoods into long-lived products and/or products with high substitution potential.

Highlights

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1], the influence of human activity on the climate system and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) has never been greater
Younger stands (100 years)
Our results showed that strict conservation yield lower carbon sequestration in forests than under ecosystem-based forest management; the ability to maintain a carbon sink with ecosystem-based forest management would be most effective without climate warming, which is increasingly unlikely

Summary

Introduction

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1], the influence of human activity on the climate system and the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) has never been greater. As temperatures rise, hardwood species are predicted to become more abundant in these ecosystems at the expense of softwoods [15,16,17] All together, these climate-induced impacts on northern forest ecosystems can have the potential to significantly alter their capacity to act as carbon sinks [14,18]. These climate-induced impacts on northern forest ecosystems can have the potential to significantly alter their capacity to act as carbon sinks [14,18] In such a context, the transfer of carbon towards wood products can either improve or worsen the overall carbon balance of the forest sector, depending on the characteristics of the industrial wood processing network (e.g., the share of long-lived wood products that it can processes) and on market use of wood products (e.g., whether they are used to displace GHG-intensive products) [19]

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