Mining on land or in the deep sea? Overlooked considerations of a reshuffling in the supply source mix

Abstract

In a context of high global demand for energy transition minerals, the possibility of accessing the large resources in the deep sea appears to some as a supply and financial opportunity. This article posits that deep-sea mining (DSM) could become a significant part of the global supply mix for some of the metals required in battery manufacture, namely cobalt, copper, manganese, and nickel. Under a conceivable scenario, a reshuffling of global supply in favour of DSM would negatively affect other metal suppliers, and particularly the terrestrial mining sector. This would have negative implications for mining jurisdictions and localities. After laying out the current state of knowledge, the paper provides a preliminary analysis that assesses current and future vulnerabilities in extractive locations. We characterise the terrestrial sources of cobalt, copper, manganese and nickel and the social, political, and economic contexts in which resources are located. Factors considered include the jurisdiction's economic dependence on mining and governance score; mining communities’ remoteness; and mining projects’ relative position in the cost curve. More predictive macro-economic analyses are needed to assess the scale of the indirect effects DSM supply could trigger.