Abstract
The purpose of the study was to predict the state of microfinance organizations in the Russian Federation, verify the trends that determine their development in the context of global geopolitical challenges. The research was carried out using logical and empirical methods. The article analyzes changes in the main indicators of the functioning of microfinance organizations (MFOs) in the Russian Federation over a ten-year period (2014–2023). Based on an analysis of changes in key indicators characterizing domestic microfinance organizations (the number of microfinance organizations, the volume of microloans issued and their structure in the context of online and offline formats, the main segments of microfinance), the author comes to the conclusion that microfinance activities in the Russian Federation are highly resistant to negative impacts environmental factors. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the verification of the main trends in the development of domestic microfinance, which include tightening regulation of microfinance organizations by the Central Bank of Russia, further consolidation, industry concentration, development of non-core activities, BNPL services, dominance of online microcredit, deterioration in the quality of debt servicing, reducing the investment attractiveness of the industry. In conclusion, the author identified the forecast values of the main performance indicators of MFOs for the period 2024–2027, and possible restrictions on the future development of this.
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