Methodological and theoretical fundamentals of bankruptcy probability assessment of "UkSATSE" enterprise

Abstract

In the economic sciences today there is a large number of developments in the field of analysis and forecasting of insolvent companies, which in turn helps to find and assess the criteria for the probability of bankruptcy of insolvent entities on the example of state enterprise “Ukrainian State Air Traffic Services Enterprise (UkSATSE)”. This paper is devoted to the reflection of the main methods and models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of the enterprise, which were proposed by foreign and domestic scientists. In particular, it is noted that the assessment of the threat of bankruptcy on the model of Altman in our economic conditions can be considered as conditional, preliminary, especially if the business entity cannot be classified as medium or large. This model does not allow to obtain a fairly objective result. This is due to differences in the accounting of individual indicators, the impact on their formation of a number of external factors (primarily inflation), the mismatch between the book and market value of individual assets and other objective reasons. Such features determine the need to adjust the coefficients of significance of the indicators given in the Altman model, which in a developing economy is hardly possible. It is noted that in general, only financial ratios are used to predict the probability of bankruptcy, and the company's bankruptcy depends not only on the financial area. The calculated indicators do not include such coefficients as: return on assets, the degree of suitability of fixed assets, material consumption, instability of personnel - these are some of the main coefficients of the company. Methods of domestic scientist O. Tereshchenko will be suitable for our country. Thus, all models of the probability of bankruptcy have a serious drawback: they do not take into account the state of development of the industry and the country. The main directions and ideas in business are considered, the forecast of Eurocontrol concerning changes of traffic of flights for 4 years is resulted. The use of a discriminant model for estimating the probability of bankruptcy on the example of the enterprise state enterprise “UkSATSE” is analyzed. Based on all the data, an analysis and description of the shortcomings of the use of discriminant analysis is created. Recommendations for improving the state of the enterprise and timely forecast of the probability of bankruptcy are given.