Diagnosis of the crisis possibility and its effectiveness to maintain the financial stability of entrepreneurs

Abstract

Introduction. Transformational changes in the national economy, its high level of dependence on the development trends of developed countries, and unstable financial situation require the search for effective tools for identifying and minimizing regulatory, financial, tax and reputational risks in business entities. The diagnosis of probability of crisis and bankruptcy is an effective tool for maintaining the financial stability of enterprises. Despite the large number of researchers and their achievements, the large number of methods and models for predicting the likelihood of bankruptcy, this problem is relevant, because no model can predict such external factors as political instability, natural disasters, worsening social- economic situation, or even the global economic crisis, as well as internal factors such as poor planning or inefficient management of the enterprise. Bankruptcy forecasting models (E. Altman model, model R and Tereshchenko model) have many disadvantages besides many advantages. The enterprise should choose a model that takes into account all the peculiarities of the economic development of the enterprise and trends in the markets in which it is presented. In addition, the assessment of bankruptcy should be performed not only in cases where the enterprise already has crisis phenomena, but also in order to prevent them from being diagnosed in a timely manner and preventing bankruptcy. Method (methodology). Methods of analysis of structure and series of dynamics were used in the research of the current state and tendencies of development of the business sector. Investigation of existing approaches to analyze the likelihood of a crisis in the enterprise and to identify the most effective of them was carried out using methods of synthesis, analysis and systematic approach. The study of the probability of bankruptcy at the enterprise is based on discriminant analysis (using the four-factor model R, five-factor Altman model, six factor Tereshchenko model). Results. Under the conditions of economic instability in Ukraine, there is a need to improve the financial stability and solvency of Ukrainian enterprises. This is possible by timely diagnosis of the likelihood of a crisis and, as a consequence, bankruptcy of enterprises. It is advisable to carry out the diagnostic process using the following stages: rapid analysis of early signs of crisis at the enterprise; economic evaluation and analysis of financial statements of the enterprise; analysis of the financial condition of the bustle of management; rating of enterprise activity; discriminant analysis of the probability of bankruptcy at the enterprise. Of the many existing models, the most effective models are proposed to be used: Altman model (in three modifications – for joint stock companies, for private companies that do not place shares in the stock market, for non-productive enterprises), model R and the Tereshchenko model. Bankruptcy forecasting models, in addition to their many advantages, also have their disadvantages. So the company should choose a model that takes into account all the peculiarities of the enterprise's economic development and trends in the markets in which it is presented. In addition, the assessment of bankruptcy should be performed not only when the enterprise is already in crisis, but also for financially sound enterprises in order to diagnose crisis events in a timely manner and prevent bankruptcy.