Abstract
On the basis of a productive and peaceful society, the physical and mental health of individuals constituting society lies. The threat for health resulting from the deterioration of environmental conditions, genetic inheritance, etc. leads individuals to receive health care services and thus direct them to hospitals. Hospitals in the service sector are enterprises where there is very intense interaction with customers which is difficult to manage. Competition among the institutions involved in this field, to transfer the best service to our customers with cost-efficient confronts us as a necessity. One of the most important points in providing suitable is planning during making a purchase. Particularly in institutions such as hospitals where the purchase of medical supplies is a major cost item, a good demand forecast should be made for the control of inventory costs. In this study, with data taken from a hospital in Istanbul, a demand forecast application was conducted with the actual demand data for the last five years of basic medical materials used. Different forecasting methods were applied to the available data, and it was intended to determine the most appropriate forecasting method.
Highlights
Health services to be effective and efficient are very important for people to maintain prosperity in their lives
Forecast results obtained by the Forecasting methods of the glove over the past 12 months are shown in Table
When we look at error values obtained for demand forecast of gloves, it is seen that the lowest value is provided by Holt-Winters
Summary
Health services to be effective and efficient are very important for people to maintain prosperity in their lives. Demand forecast is carried out to estimate raw materials, the product or customer demand for a future period of time. The growing popularity of the concept of supply chain, has enabled supply chain members to conduct study on this issue In this way, the benefits are pronounced for the reduction of inventory levels (Murphy and Knemeyer, 2016). Short-term forecast cover a period of less than six months. It is available for purchasing decisions, job scheduling, labor levels and production levels. The purpose of this study is the choice of method to use in a private hospital medical services in Istanbul to be used to determine the demand for some of the materials for the year. It was intended to shed light on the company's stock plans, to contribute to the literature on buying supplies in hospitals where small number of studies are relatively made
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