Method Construction and Spatial Analysis of Local Water Supply′Prediction Under the Climate Change in Qingdao

Abstract

According to the characteristics of local water supply in Qingdao,this paper combined the statistical model with the mechanism model,constructed the prediction method of local water supply based on GIS with the principle of regional water resources balance.Then paper seted up different natural supply scenarios to predict the local water supply and their spatial heterogeneity in the future effectively.The results showed that under the background of climate change,the local water supply in Qingdao will continue to be shortage and more imbalanced.Under the three different scenarios,the decreasing trend and spatial distribution of water supply are obvious in Qingdao,even in the case of therich scenario,there were different degrees of reduction and obvious spatial distribution difference.According to the three different scenarios,the average local water supply of each administrative unit in Qingdao(10000 cubic meters),showing the spatial distribution characteristics as West Coast New Area(37974.8)>Pingdu(21133.2)>Laixi(11747.1)>Jiaozhou(11496.0)>Laoshan(11301.6)>Jimo(7789.6)>Chengyang(3972.7)>three districts of Qingdao(3682.0).Therefore,in the process of water allocation in the future,we must not only focus on the demand,but also pay attention to the differences of local water supply′spatial distribution under the influences of climate change,especially in regions with severe supply and demand shortage.So as to achieve the purpose of the organic combination of water resources allocation and the adaptation to climate change.