Mathematical modeling of the regional budget formation procedure

Abstract

The regional budget is a key element of the regional financial system. According to budget legislation, the formation of the budget of the subject of the Russian Federation is carried out by state authorities of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation in accordance with the requirements established by the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, as well as the laws of the subject of the Russian Federation and other regulatory documents adopted in accordance with it. The procedure for forming a regional budget is quite well regulated, but poorly formalized. It should be noted that budget planning tactics and strategy differ significantly, since long-term goals are set on the basis of the development of strategic plans. The purpose of this study is to implement an approach to the formation of the regional budget according to the optimal structure. The uniqueness of the concept lies in the development of the target vector and positioning of budget planning as a Bayesian process. The criterion of optimality is the location of a multidimensional point expressing the composition of the budget on a straight line reflecting the target vector. Such an approach in relation to the procedure for the formation of the regional budget has not been considered before. The solution to this problem involves the formation of a target vector for both its revenue and expenditure parts. The methodological tools used in the work are classical methods of analytical geometry and an algorithm for forming a regional budget. To increase the adequacy of the results when modeling the regional budget, it is advisable to add the condition that the random process belongs to the Bayesian type, then, in addition to the obtained values, the share of the item in the regional budget is also taken into account. The Bayesian process takes into account conditional probabilities. In this work, the relative measure of achievement of each budget item of the target state in the base period acts as conditional probabilities. The article uses an illustrative example to show the use of the proposed methodological approach for the formation of an optimal regional budget within the framework of revenue and expenditure parts for items approved by Russian legislation. The construction and analysis of a regional budget allows us to take a new approach to solving this problem, and most importantly, to create an optimal budget while saving intellectual and time costs for participants in the budget process. The results of mathematical modeling of the regional budget are presented in the form of an algorithm, which makes it possible to consolidate the relevant procedures for calculating the revenue and expenditure parts of the budget in regulatory documents (at the federal and/or regional level) for their further use in the budget process.