Abstract
With the rapid development of Economic Globalization as well as international trade and capital transaction, stock market take a more and more important position in the finance analysis.In this thesis, I combined the MA the KDJ, MA for long term trend analysis and KDJ for short term analysis. First I introduced MA and KDJ separately, their strength and weakness. Then I try to put them together, adjust the parameters to make them suitable for Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index.Then I use my model to simulate transaction in real world, estimate the rate of return and comparing with the stocks’ holding rate and inflation rate. The result is pleasant. At last, I give a conclusion and a further advice to this model.
Highlights
With the rapid development of Economic Globalization as well as international trade and capital transaction, stock market take a more and more important position in the finance analysis
Stock market is a main part of national investment, absorbing a large quantity of private capital
Financial markets are full of uncertainty, so we use technical analysis to forecast the trend
Summary
With the rapid development of Economic Globalization as well as international trade and capital transaction, stock market take a more and more important position in the finance analysis. Stock market is a main part of national investment, absorbing a large quantity of private capital. It is the standard for almost all the finance derivatives, influence billions of transaction. They simplify the forecast result into some signal, to tell you should buy or sell, which means more people without finance background can take part in the capital market. MACD is the most classical model, it need a long-period data and can give a judgement to the general trend. It does well in long term, makes mistake rarely, but will be obtuse in short term. To make the conclusion more universal, I use the Shanghai stock market in examples below rather than a certain stock
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