MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT IN NIGERIA (1988 – 2019)

Abstract

The goal of this study was to analyse empirically the effect on the stock market movement of five selected macro-economic variables, including the exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, crude oil price, and foreign portfolio investment. For the movement of the stock market, stock market capitalizations were used as a reference. Information from the annual time series covering the period between 1988 and 2019 was used. The analysis started with examining stochastic characteristics of each time series by testing their stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The findings show that only equity market capitalization and crude oil price was found stationary at level, while the other time series were found stationary at first difference. The bounds cointegration test procedure indicates that the variables have long-run equilibrium relationship amongst themselves. Analysis from the study showed that foreign exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, crude oil, and foreign portfolio investment are all significant in determining the performance of equity market capitalisation. They were all found to have a significant effect on stock market movement in Nigeria. Based on these findings, the study recommended that there is need to formulate sustainable macro-economic policies to curtail depreciation of the Naira, high inflation, and interest rate while attracting long-term foreign portfolio investors into Nigeria. Aggressive diversification of the economy should be made from its mono-cultural dependence on oil whose price over which Nigeria has no control.