Market exits during the pandemic

Abstract

The new coronavirus pandemic has triggered an economic crisis different from other crises in the acuteness and non-uniformity of its impact on various sectors of the economy. This paper analyzes how the dynamics of firms entering and exiting the market have changed in this environment and which groups of firms have shown to be the most vulnerable to the negative effect of the crisis. Our analysis shows that the number of newly registered firms dwindled sharply in the period of the toughest restrictions imposed to curtail the infection spread in April — May 2020. The recovery which followed in the subsequent months has failed to compensate for the spring’s slump, which may suggest a “scarring impact” of the crisis. July and October 2020 saw a substantial rise in companies’ exits from the market. The crisis has hurt not only the hardest hit industries but also other areas of economic activity. Liquidations rose most extensively among young firms aged less than three years. Relatively higher productivity firms exited less often than lower productivity companies. This may suggest a “cleansing effect” of the crisis. But with the redundant labor being unable to move to more productive firms, the positive effect of the crisis may be brought to naught. Therefore, for the consequences of the crisis to be remedied, incentives should be provided to new firms’ entries and support for efficient companies, especially for young firms showing growth potential. Stimulation of growth in the number of high-productivity firms should go hand in hand with the creation of conditions for new entities’ fast development, expansion, and efficiency enhancement.