Market competition, technology substitution, and collaborative forecasting for smartphone panels and supplier revenues

Abstract

Market competition coupled with technology substitution concurrently drive rapid progress and revolution of panel displays. Today, display technology has evolved from cathode ray tube (CRT), plasma display panel (PDP), liquid crystal display (LCD), organic light emitting diode (OLED), to mini/micro LED (MLED). Although technical characteristics including intensity, contrast, and duration have been significantly enhanced, it is still difficult for global leaders to forecast product sales because of intensive price variations and dynamic technology evolution. This research presents a novel framework to achieve the following goals: (1) Sales forecast for upstream panels is linked to demand for downstream consumer products, (2) Market competition between the top vendors, Samsung, LGD, and BOE, is included to reveal managerial insights, and (3) Technology substitution between OLED and LCD is captured in smartphone panels to estimate stable equilibriums. Experimental findings show the inclusion of smartphones, tablets, laptops, monitors, and flat TVs can significantly improve the performances of sales forecasting. Meanwhile, Samsung and LGD are mutually independent but LGD suffers from the existence of BOE. Lastly, technology substitution between OLED and LCD reveals global OLED shipments are expected to grow by 12.54% while Samsung’s OLED revenues only increase by 3%.