Combining scenario analysis with delphi and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of the OLED TV market

Abstract

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology, and while it presents rich and complex portraits of possible future scenarios, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers have combined these two models to analyze the development of new technologies. The current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account for accurate forecasting. However, because there is often large variation among expert opinion, a method for coming to a consensus, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the technological substitution model with scenario analysis and the Delphi method to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.