Mapping dengue in Brazil: an epidemiological, geospatial and climate correlation

Abstract

Brazil has been suffering for many years from an extensive dengue epidemic. The objective of this study was to map dengue cases in Brazil between 2007 and 2022, correlating their epidemiology, geospatial distribution, and relationship to climatic and social data. An epidemiological survey was conducted based on data available in the Notifiable Diseases Information System, calculating incidence rates (IR), mortality rates (MR), case fatality rates (CFR), and the distribution of epidemiological characteristics, allowing the geolocation of cases and the creation of maps for each year and Brazilian states. Finally, the ecological determinants were correlated with IR and MR. We observed that IR and MR remained high throughout the analyzed period, with a slight decrease in IR in 2017 and 2018. Cases occurring in female individuals were higher, however, with a similar percentage of deaths. A decrease in the average mortality was observed, during the evaluation period, in children and adolescents; however, an increase in the average mortality among elderly was correlated with the presence of comorbidities. The states located in the Midwest region were the most affected, followed by the states in the Northern region. In addition, we observed a significant, but weak, correlation between ecological determinants (maximum temperature and humidity) and IR, GDP per capita and HDI (Human Development Index) with MR. Due to the hyperendemic scenario, it is necessary to take efficient control and constant epidemiological surveillance.