Trends in tuberculosis incidence and mortality coefficients in Brazil, 2011-2019: analysis by inflection points.

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality rates are still high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the knowledge about the current patterns is valuable for policymaking to decrease the TB burden. Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we used a Joinpoint regression analysis to examine the variations in the trends of TB incidence and mortality, and the age-period-cohort statistical model to evaluate their risks associated with age, period, and cohort in males and females from Cameroon (CAM), Central African Republic (CAR), Chad, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In the four countries, TB incidence and mortality rates displayed decreasing trends in men and women; except for the males from DRC that recorded an almost steady pattern in the trend of TB incidence between 1990 and 2019. TB incidence and mortality rates decreased according to the overall annual percentage changes over the adjusted age category in men and women of the four countries, and CAM registered the highest decrease. Although TB incidence and mortality rates increased with age between 1990 and 2019, the male gender was mainly associated with the upward behaviors of TB incidence rates, and the female gender association was with the upward behaviors of TB mortality rates. Males and females aged between 15–54 and 15–49 years old were evaluated as the population at high risks of TB incidence and mortality respectively in CAM, CAR, Chad, and DRC. The period and cohort relative risks (RRs) both declined in men and women of the four countries although there were some upward behaviors in their trends. Relatively to the period and cohort RRs, females and males from CAM recorded the most significant decrease compared to the rest of the countries. New public health approaches and policies towards young adults and adults, and a particular focus on elderlies’ health and life conditions should be adopted in CAM, CAR, DRC, and Chad to rapidly decrease TB incidence and mortality in both genders of the four countries.

Japan is still a medium-burden tuberculosis (TB) country. We aimed to examine trends in newly notified active TB incidence and TB-related mortality in the last two decades in Japan. This is a population-based study using Japanese Vital Statistics and Japan Tuberculosis Surveillance from 1997 to 2016. We determined active TB incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000 population) by sex, age and disease categories. Joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted mortality rates and to identify the years showing significant trend changes. Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates reduced from 33.9 to 13.9 and 37.3 to 11.3 per 100 000 population, respectively. Also, crude and age-adjusted mortality rates reduced from 2.2 to 1.5 and 2.8 to 1.0 per 100 000 population, respectively. Average APC in the incidence and mortality rates showed significant decline both in men (-6.2% and -5.4%, respectively) and women (-5.7% and -4.6%, respectively). Age-specific analysis demonstrated decreases in incidence and mortality rates for every age category, except for the incidence trend in the younger population. Although trends in active TB incidence and mortality rates in Japan have favourably decreased, the rate of decline is far from achieving TB elimination by 2035.

BackgroundMonitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan.MethodsCancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4%) for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3%) for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7%) for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3%) for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) and small cell carcinoma (SMC) significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC) significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders.ConclusionsThe incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.

Trends in incidence and mortality from non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease across europe, over the past three decades

BackgroundPrevious studies have shown that the risk of tuberculosis (TB) increases dramatically during adolescence. The objective of this article was to analyze the burdens and trends of TB incidence and mortality rates in Asian adolescents and young adults.MethodsTime series ecological study of TB incidence and mortality rates of adolescents and young adults aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2019, using data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease website for 5 Asian countries. The annual percentage change was calculated by joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the trends in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR).ResultsThe highest ASIR per 100,000 person-years in 2019 was in Mongolia [74 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 51 to 105)], while the lowest was in Japan [4 (95% UI, 2 to 6)]. The highest ASDR per 100,000 person-years was in Mongolia [2 (95% UI, 1 to 3)], while the lowest was in Japan [0.009 (95% UI, 0.008 to 0.010)]. As the absolute number of cases and deaths decreased from 1990 to 2019, the ASIRs and ASDRs in all five countries also decreased.ConclusionsOur finding revealed that although all five countries in Asia experienced descending TB incidence and mortality trend in past three decades, the trends were especially significant in developed countries and varied across geographic regions. This study may be crucial in helping policymakers make decisions and allocate appropriate resources to adolescent TB control strategies.

BackgroundTuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019.MethodsThis is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model.ResultsDuring the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts.ConclusionMortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Reducing mortality in individuals at high risk for advanced melanoma through education and screening

BackgroundThe specific long-term trend in ovarian cancer (OC) rates in China has been rarely investigated. We aimed to estimate the temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019 in OC and predict the next 30-year levels. Data on the incidence, mortality rates, and the number of new cases and deaths cases due to OC in the China cohort from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates were evaluated by joinpoint regression models. The incidence and mortality rates and the estimated number of cases from 2020 to 2049 were predicted using the Bayesian age–period–cohort model.ResultsConsecutive increasing trends in age-standardized incidence (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.90–2.16; p < 0.001) and mortality (AAPC = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.38−1.78; p < 0.001) rates in OC were observed from 1990–2019 in China. Theoretically, both the estimated age-standardized (per 100,000 women) incidence (from 4.77 in 2019 to 8.95 in 2049) and mortality (from 2.88 in 2019 to 4.03 in 2049) rates will continue to increase substantially in the coming 30 years. And the estimated number of new cases of, and deaths from OC will increase by more than 3 times between 2019 and 2049.ConclusionsThe disease burden of OC in incidence and mortality has been increasing in China over the past 30 years and will be predicted to increase continuously in the coming three decades.

AimTo describe and interpret lung cancer incidence and mortality trends in Croatia between 1988 and 2008.MethodsIncidence data on lung cancer for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry, while mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Population estimates for Croatia were obtained from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. We also calculated and analyzed age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. To describe time incidence and mortality trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsLung cancer incidence and mortality rates in men decreased significantly in all age groups younger than 70 years. Age-standardized incidence rates in men decreased significantly by -1.3% annually. Joinpoint analysis of mortality in men identified three trends, and average annual percent change (AAPC) decreased significantly by -1.1%. Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in women increased significantly in all age groups older than 40 years and decreased in younger women (30-39- years). Age-standardized incidence rates increased significantly by 1.7% annually. Joinpoint analysis of age-standardized mortality rates in women identified two trends, and AAPC increased significantly by 1.9%.ConclusionDespite the overall decreasing trend, Croatia is still among the European countries with the highest male lung cancer incidence and mortality. Although the incidence trend in women is increasing, their age standardized incidence rates are still 5-fold lower than in men. These trends follow the observed decrease and increase in the prevalence of male and female smokers, respectively. These findings indicate the need for further introduction of smoking prevention and cessation policies targeting younger population, particularly women.

To determine whether differences in national trends in tuberculosis incidence are attributable to the variable success of control programmes or to biological, social and economic factors. We used trends in case notifications as a measure of trends in incidence in 134 countries, from 1997 to 2006, and used regression analysis to explore the associations between these trends and 32 measures covering various aspects of development (1), the economy (6), the population (3), behavioural and biological risk factors (9), health services (6) and tuberculosis (TB) control (7). The TB incidence rate changed annually within a range of +/-10% over the study period in the 134 countries examined, and its average value declined in 93 countries. The rate was declining more quickly in countries that had a higher human development index, lower child mortality and access to improved sanitation. General development measures were also dominant explanatory variables within regions, though correlation with TB incidence trends varied geographically. The TB incidence rate was falling more quickly in countries with greater health expenditure (situated in central and eastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean), high-income countries with lower immigration, and countries with lower child mortality and HIV infection rates (located in Latin America and the Caribbean). The intensity of TB control varied widely, and a possible causal link with TB incidence was found only in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the rate of detection of smear-positive cases showed a negative correlation with national incidence trends. Although TB control programmes have averted millions of deaths, their effects on transmission and incidence rates are not yet widely detectable.

Tuberculosis in areas and countries along the China–Proposed Belt and Road Initiative

Stroke mortality varies greatly from country to country. In 1985, the highest figures in eastern European countries were 6- to 7-fold those of countries with the lowest mortality rates,1 and the same trend has continued in the 1990s.2 The mortality rates have not, however, remained stable during the last decades. In most countries, a significant reduction has occurred, whereas in some countries the opposite is true: during 1970 to 1985, the annual changes ranged from +3.9% to −7.1%, and during 1985 to 1994, from +3.2% to −6.8%.1,2 The obvious causes of the reduced mortality rates have been either a decreased incidence of stroke or the case-fatality rate, or both. The explanations for the growing mortality rates, mainly in the eastern European countries, have been more or less speculative. In the present study, Sarti and associates have answered these questions. Their impressive patient material consisted of 36 000 young (35 to 64 years) …

10569 Background: Epidemiological data relating to non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), including squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), is highly under-reported and under-studied due to its lower metastatic potential. In recent years, incidence and prevalence of SCC has increased in many countries due to earlier detection, increased ultraviolet light exposure, as well as increasing life expectancy. This investigation compared trends in SCC incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 33 countries. Methods: We utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for 33 countries, including the European Union nations as well as other selected high-income countries including the UK and USA. We extracted data including age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and DALYs for SCC of the skin from 1990 to 2017. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe the trends. Results: For both sexes, the highest ASIRs were seen in the USA and Australia: ASIRs were 362.8/100,000 and 283.7/100,000 respectively for males, and 171.2/100,000 and 152.4/100,000 respectively for females. Males had higher ASIRs than females at the end of the observation period in all countries. In contrast, the highest ASMRs for males were observed in Australia (2.77/100,000) and Latvia (2.44/100,000), while the highest ASMRs for females were observed in Romania (0.95/100,000) and Croatia (0.90/100,000). The highest DALYs for both sexes were seen in Australia and Romania: DALYs were 58.4/100,000 and 43.8/100,000 respectively for males, and 16.9/100,000 and 14.9/100,000 respectively for females. Over the observation period, there were more countries demonstrating decreasing trends in mortality than in incidence. There was also a disparity between which countries had comparatively high mortality rates and which had high incidence rates – for instance, the USA, which had by far the highest SCC incidence rates, had among the lower mortality rates. Overall reductions in DALYs were observed in 24 of 33 countries for males, and 25 countries for females. Conclusions: Over the past 27 years, although trends in SCC incidence have risen in most countries, there is evidence that mortality rates have been decreasing, especially towards the end of the observation period. Overall, burden of disease as assessed using DALYs has decreased in the majority of countries. Future work will explore potential explanatory factors for the observed disparity in trends in SCC incidence and mortality.

Background: Consistent with observations from various developing regions of the world, cancer incidence and mortality rates have increased in the past two decades, and continue to increase in the Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago (TT). The aim of this study was to describe patterns of incidence and mortality for the five leading cancers among men and women in TT. Methods: Cancer surveillance data collected between January 1995 and December 2007, by the Dr. Elizabeth Quamina Cancer Registry for Trinidad and Tobago were analyzed. Sex-specific, age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality rates (standardized to the World Standard Population) were calculated (per 100,000) for each year. Results: Between 1995 and 2007, there were 25,027 incident cases and 15,279 cancer deaths reported in TT. Cancer incidence and mortality rates among nationals of African ancestry were significantly higher than other ethnic/race groups (East Indians, mixed ancestry). The leading incident cancers among men were prostate, lung, colon, stomach, and hematologic cancers. Prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates fluctuated substantially and in any given year, prostate cancer incidence rates were more than 3 times that of the other leading cancers among men. Prostate cancer mortality rates increased fairly steadily throughout the study period. Incidence and mortality rates for cancers of the lung &amp; bronchus, colon, stomach, and hematologic cancers remained stable during this time period. Among women, the leading incident cancer sites were breast, cervical, endometrial, colon, and ovarian. Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates increased steadily from 1995-2007. Cervical cancer incidence rates decreased during the study period while the mortality rates mortality rates almost doubled during the same time period. Incidence and mortality rates of endometrial, colon and ovarian cancers remained stable during this time period. Cancer incidence and mortality rates varied substantially, by geography (as shown across the catchment areas of the five Regional Health Authorities [RHAs] in TT). By RHA, average incidence rates were highest in areas covered by the Tobago RHA (188.3 per 100,000), followed by the Northwest RHA (NWRHA), which includes the capital, Port-of-Spain (170.8 per 100,000). Overall, average mortality rates were also highest in areas covered by the NWRHA (106.3 per 100,000). Conclusions: These findings indicate that there are significant disparities in cancer incidence and mortality by geography and ancestry in TT. The differences in the top cancer sites in TT compared to United States and other countries as well as the increasing cancer burden highlights the need for increased cancer research in the Caribbean. Our findings also highlight the need for further studies including planned molecular, genetic, and environmental studies, to further understand risk factors related to these differences or disparities in cancer burden in TT. These and other similar efforts will aid TT in strategies for increased cancer surveillance and creation of cancer prevention and control programs and policies. Citation Format: Wayne A. Warner, Adana A.M. Llanos, Tammy Y. Lee, Tanisha M. Williams, Kimberly M. Badal, Veronica Roach, Ret., Simeon Slovacek, Adetunji T. Toriola, Allana Roach, Damali Martin. Cancer incidence and mortality rates and trends in Trinidad and Tobago. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Eighth AACR Conference on The Science of Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; Nov 13-16, 2015; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2016;25(3 Suppl):Abstract nr B46.

Research assessing the changing epidemiology of infectious diseases in China after the implementation of new healthcare reform in 2009 was scarce. We aimed to get the latest trends and disparities of nationalnotifiable infectious diseases by age, sex, province, and season in China from 2010 to 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths, incidence rate, and mortality of 44 national notifiable infectious diseases by sex, age groups, and provincial regions from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and official reports and divided into six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes and three classes (A-C) in this descriptive study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of incidence and mortality rate. We calculated the concentration index to measure economic-related inequality. Segmented interrupted time-series analysis was used to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemic of notifiable infectious diseases. The trend of incidence rate on six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes was stable, while only mortality of sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases increased from 0.6466 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 1.5499 per 100 000 population in 2019 by 8.76% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.88-10.68). There was a decreasing trend of incidence rate on Class-A infectious diseases (EAPC = -16.30%; 95%CI: -27.93 to -2.79) and Class-B infectious diseases (EAPC = -1.05%; 95%CI: -1.56 to -0.54), while an increasing trend on Class-C infectious diseases (EAPC = 6.22%; 95%CI: 2.13-10.48). For mortality, there was a decreasing trend on Class-C infectious diseases (EAPC = -14.76%; 95%CI: -23.46 to -5.07), and an increasing trend on Class-B infectious diseases (EAPC = 4.56%; 95%CI: 2.44-6.72). In 2019, the infectious diseases with the highest incidence rate and mortality were respiratory diseases (340.95 per 100 000 population), and sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases (1.5459 per 100 000 population), respectively. The greatest increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in seasonal influenza, from 4.83 per 100 000 population in 2010 to 253.36 per 100 000 population in 2019 by 45.16% per year (95%CI: 29.81-62.33), especially among females and children aged 0-4 years old. The top disease with the highest mortality was still AIDs, which had the highest average yearly mortality in 24 provinces from 2010 to 2019, and its incidence rate (EAPC = 14.99%; 95%CI: 8.75-21.59) and mortality (EAPC = 9.65; 95%CI: 7.71-11.63) both increased from 2010 to 2019, especially among people aged 44-59 years old and 60 or older. Male incidence rate and mortality were higher than females each year from 2010 to 2018 on 29 and 10 infectious diseases, respectively. Additionally, sex differences in the incidence and mortality of AIDS were becoming larger. The curve lay above the equality line, with the negative value of the concentration index, which indicated that economic-related health disparities exist in the distribution of incidence rate and mortality of respiratory diseases (incidence rate: the concentration index = -0.063, p < 0.0001; mortality: the concentration index = -0.131, p < 0.001), sexual, blood-borne, and mother-to-child-borne infectious diseases (incidence rate: the concentration index = -0.039, p = 0.0192; mortality: the concentration index = -0.207, p < 0.0001), and the inequality disadvantageous to the poor (pro-rich). Respiratory diseases (Dec-Jan), intestinal diseases (May-Jul), zoonotic infectious diseases (Mar-Jul), and vector-borne infectious diseases (Sep-Oct) had distinct seasonal epidemic patterns. In addition, segmented interrupted time-series analyses showed that, after adjusting for potential seasonality, autocorrelation, GDP per capita, number of primary medical institutions, and other factors, there was no significant impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the monthly incidence rate of six kinds of infectious diseases by transmission routes from 2018 to 2020 (all p > 0.05). The incidence rates of six kinds of infectious diseases were stable in the past decade, and incidence rates of Class-A and Class-B infectious diseases were decreasingbecause of comprehensive prevention and control measures and a strengthened health system after the implementation of the new healthcare reform in China since2009. However, age, gender, regional, and economic disparities were still observed. Concerted efforts are needed to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza (especially among children aged 0-4 years old) and the mortality of AIDs (especially among people aged 44-59 years old and 60 or older). More attention should be paid to the disparities in the burden of infectious diseases.