Making Robust Policy Decisions Using Global Biodiversity Indicators

Emily Nicholson,Steffen Fritz,Ben Collen,Fiona M Underwood,Alberto Barausse,Hugh P Possingham,Louise Mcrae,Brendan T Costelloe,Julia L Blanchard,Robert W Burn,Julia P G Jones,Kathryn M E Sullivan,E J Milner-Gulland

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041128

Abstract

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Highlights

In response to the general failure to meet the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) goal to reduce the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010, the October 2010 Conference of the Parties to the CBD agreed to a Strategic Plan with new targets for biodiversity conservation until 2020 [1,2]
In the second case study, we modelled the impact on biodiversity of two alternative policies, halving or halting bottom trawling, in six ocean systems using 10 ecosystem models, and calculated the ensuing changes in the Living Planet Index (LPI)
As the declining populations became small, they contributed less to the overall trend for the species as a whole, leading to species being downlisted under Criterion A of the IUCN Red List, which relates to population declines [41]

Summary

Introduction

In response to the general failure to meet the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) goal to reduce the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010, the October 2010 Conference of the Parties to the CBD agreed to a Strategic Plan with new targets for biodiversity conservation until 2020 [1,2]. This Plan aims to inspire action to halt the ongoing loss of biodiversity through the development of national biodiversity strategies, targets and action plans [1]. A Responses-Pressures-State-Benefits framework is starting to be used by the CBD for presenting linked sets of biodiversity indicators [11,12]; this implies causative links between changes in groups of related indicators, but without an explicit model of the mechanisms underlying these interactions

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion