The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates.
Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario-based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species' observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.
- Research Article
207
- 10.1111/cobi.13112
- Apr 18, 2018
- Conservation Biology
Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.
- Research Article
11
- 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106765
- Aug 15, 2020
- Ecological Indicators
Assessing worth of marine protected areas for the protection of threatened biodiversity using IUCN Red List and Red List Index. A pilot study in six mediterranean areas
- Research Article
134
- 10.1111/cobi.13454
- Jan 13, 2020
- Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, a species extinction risk assessment tool, has been guiding conservation efforts for over 5 decades. It is widely assumed to have been instrumental in preventing species from moving closer to extinction and driving recoveries. However, the impact of the IUCN Red List in guiding conservation has not been evaluated. We conducted, transcribed, and coded interviews with experts who use the IUCN Red List across a range of sectors to understand how the list is used in conservation. We developed a theory of change to illustrate how and why change is expected to occur along causal pathways contributing to the long‐term goal of the IUCN Red List and an evaluation framework with indicators for measuring the impact of the IUCN Red List in generating scientific knowledge, raising awareness among stakeholders, designating priority conservation sites, allocating funding and resources, influencing development of legislation and policy, and guiding targeted conservation action (key themes). Red‐list assessments were the primary input leading to outputs (scientific knowledge, raised awareness), outcomes (better informed priority setting, access to funding and resource availability, improved legislation and policy), and impact (implemented conservation action leading to positive change) that have resulted in achievement of IUCN Red List goals. To explore feasibility of attributing the difference made by the IUCN Red List across themes, we studied increased scientific knowledge, raised awareness, access to funding and resource allocation, and increased conservation activity. The feasibility exploration showed increased scientific knowledge over time identified through positive trends in publications referring to the IUCN Red List in the literature; raised awareness of the list following high IUCN activity identified by peaks in online search activity; an increased proportion of conservation funding bodies requesting IUCN Red List status in the application process; and, based on interviews with Amphibian Specialist Group members, red‐list assessments were essential in connecting relevant stakeholders and ensuring conservation action. Although we identified the IUCN Red List as a vital tool in global conservation efforts, it was challenging to measure specific impacts because of its ubiquitous nature. We are the first to identify the influence of the IUCN Red List on conservation.
- Research Article
24
- 10.3354/esr00129
- Dec 30, 2008
- Endangered Species Research
ESR Endangered Species Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials ESR 6:193-198 (2008) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00129 National Red Lists: the largest global market for IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria Jon Paul Rodríguez1,2,* 1Centro de Ecología, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas, Apdo. 20632, Caracas 1020-A,Venezuela 2Provita, Apdo. 47552, Caracas 1041-A, Venezuela *Email: jonpaul@ivic.ve ABSTRACT: The 2 major challenges currently confronting the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with regard to the ‘red listing’ process are the taxonomic, and the geographic growth of the data base. Taxonomic growth refers to the objective of gradually assessing the risk of extinction of all the world’s species and periodically repeating such assessments. Geographic growth refers to the increasing number of people around the world interested in performing extinction risk assessments for various groups of organisms in their region or country. The taxonomic challenge, although a large and demanding task, can be addressed by expanding and strengthening the networks of experts organized within the IUCN Species Survival Commission (SSC), which represents a significant scaling-up of a well-developed, known model. However, no current structure within the IUCN has the mandate to address the geographic challenge; this requires the creation of new structures or mechanisms. At least 5 key activities must be implemented to effectively integrate the diffuse network of national assessors into the global red listing process: (1) large-scale publicizing of the Guidelines for Application of IUCN Red List Criteria at Regional Levels, and encouraging the work of national assessors; (2) establishing the IUCN Species Programme as the primary trainer and certifier of multipliers; (3) delegating the majority of training to national institutions; (4) creating a virtual data clearing house for national red lists, seamlessly linked to the global list; and (5) consolidating the IUCN Species Programme as the primary endorser of national red list assessments. Hundreds of regional and national red lists will probably be produced in the next decade using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, particularly because they are now recognized by international agreements such as the 2010 biodiversity target of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nation’s General Assembly Millennium Development Goals. By catalyzing this process, the IUCN would expand the information on the world’s threatened species, while strengthening local scientific capacity for generating and using these data to support conservation action. KEY WORDS: Assessment of extinction risk · Conservation priorities · IUCN Red List · National red lists · Threatened species Full text in pdf format PreviousCite this article as: Rodríguez JP (2008) National Red Lists: the largest global market for IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Endang Species Res 6:193-198. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00129 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in ESR Vol. 6, No. 2. Online publication date: December 30, 2008 Print ISSN: 1863-5407; Online ISSN: 1613-4796 Copyright © 2008 Inter-Research.
- Research Article
27
- 10.1111/cobi.12308
- May 12, 2014
- Conservation Biology
Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009.Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de ExtinciónResumenLos índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los índices que reflejan el riesgo de extinción serían valiosos. Desarrollamos 3 índices de biodiversidad que se basan en modelos sencillos de viabilidad de población y que relacionan el riesgo de extinción con la abundancia. Basamos el primer índice en la media geométrica de la abundancia de especies, y el segundo en una media de poder más general. En el tercer índice integramos la media geométrica y la tendencia. Estos índices requieren los mismos datos que índices previos, pero también se relacionan directamente con el riesgo de extinción. La información de campo sobre mariposas y plantas de bosque, y los estudios experimentales de comunidades protozoarias, muestran que los índices se correlacionan con las tasas locales de extinción. Al aplicar el índice basado en la media geométrica sobre los datos globales de los cambios en la abundancia de aves, sugirió que la probabilidad de extinción promedio de aves ha incrementado aproximadamente 1% desde 1970 hasta 2009.Palabras ClaveÍndice de biodiversidad, media geométrica, medida de la biodiversidad, riesgo de extinción
- Research Article
72
- 10.1111/cobi.13279
- Feb 25, 2019
- Conservation Biology
The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List categories and criteria are the most widely used framework for assessing the relative extinction risk of species. The criteria are based on quantitative thresholds relating to the size, trends, and structure of species’ distributions and populations. However, data on these parameters are sparse and uncertain for many species and unavailable for others, potentially leading to their misclassification or classification as data deficient. We devised an approach that combines data on land‐cover change, species‐specific habitat preferences, population abundance, and dispersal distance to estimate key parameters (extent of occurrence, maximum area of occupancy, population size and trend, and degree of fragmentation) and hence predict IUCN Red List categories for species. We applied our approach to nonpelagic birds and terrestrial mammals globally (∼15,000 species). The predicted categories were fairly consistent with published IUCN Red List assessments, but more optimistic overall. We predicted 4.2% of species (467 birds and 143 mammals) to be more threatened than currently assessed and 20.2% of data deficient species (10 birds and 114 mammals) to be at risk of extinction. Incorporating the habitat fragmentation subcriterion reduced these predictions 1.5–2.3% and 6.4–14.9% (depending on the quantitative definition of fragmentation) for threatened and data deficient species, respectively, highlighting the need for improved guidance for IUCN Red List assessors on the application of this aspect of the IUCN Red List criteria. Our approach complements traditional methods of estimating parameters for IUCN Red List assessments. Furthermore, it readily provides an early‐warning system to identify species potentially warranting changes in their extinction‐risk category based on periodic updates of land‐cover information. Given our method relies on optimistic assumptions about species distribution and abundance, all species predicted to be more at risk than currently evaluated should be prioritized for reassessment.
- Research Article
24
- 10.1111/cobi.12437
- Jan 7, 2015
- Conservation Biology
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used to measure trends in extinction risk of species over time. The development of 2 red lists for Spanish vascular flora during the past decade allowed us to apply the IUCN RLI to vascular plants in an area belonging to a global biodiversity hotspot. We used the Spanish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to assess changes in level of threat at a national scale and at the subnational scales of Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and peninsular Spain. We assigned retrospective IUCN categories of threat to 98 species included in the Spanish Red List of 2010 but absent in the Spanish Red List of 2000. In addition, we tested the effect of different random and taxonomic and spatial Spanish samples on the overall RLI value. From 2000 to 2010, the IUCN categories of 768 species changed (10% of Spanish flora), mainly due to improved knowledge (63%), modifications in IUCN criteria (14%), and changes in threat status (12%). All measured national and subnational RLI values decreased during this period, indicating a general decline in the conservation status of the Spanish vascular flora. The Canarian RLI value (0.84) was the lowest, although the fastest deterioration in conservation status occurred on peninsular Spain (from 0.93 in 2000 to 0.92 in 2010). The RLI values based on subsamples of the Spanish Red List were not representative of RLI values for the entire country, which would discourage the use of small areas or small taxonomic samples to assess general trends in the endangerment of national biotas. The role of the RLI in monitoring of changes in biodiversity at the global and regional scales needs further reassessment because additional areas and taxa are necessary to determine whether the index is sufficiently sensitive for use in assessing temporal changes in species' risk of extinction.
- Research Article
28
- 10.1111/cobi.12016
- Jan 18, 2013
- Conservation Biology
The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is recognized as one of the key indicators of trends in the status of species. The red-list assessment done by Finnish authorities of species in Finland is taxonomically one of the most extensive national assessments. We used the Finnish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to calculate for the first time the national RLIs for 11 taxonomic groups at different trophic levels and with different life cycles. The red-list index is calculated on the basis of changes in red-list categories and indicates trends in the status of biological diversity of sets of species. The RLI value ranges from 0 to 1. The lower the value the faster the set of species is heading toward extinction. If the value is 1, all species in the set are least concern and if the value is 0, all species are (regionally) extinct. The overall RLI of Finnish species decreased. This means that, in Finland, these taxonomic groups were heading toward extinction faster in 2010 than in 2000. Of the analyzed groups of organisms, RLIs of 5 decreased and RLIs of 6 increased. At the national level, the RLIs and status trends varied markedly between species groups. Thus, we concluded that generalizations on the basis of RLIs of a few taxa only may yield a biased view of ongoing trends in the status of biological diversity at the species level. In addition, one overall RLI that includes many different species groups may also be misleading if variation in RLI among species groups is not considered and if RLI values are not presented separately for each group.
- Research Article
9
- 10.1111/cobi.13942
- Sep 20, 2022
- Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Biodiversity is severely threatened by habitat destruction. As a consequence of habitat destruction, the remaining habitat becomes more fragmented. This results in time-lagged population extirpations in remaining fragments when these are too small to support populations in the long term. If these time-lagged effects are ignored, the long-term impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation will be underestimated. We quantified the magnitude of time-lagged effects of habitat fragmentation for 157 nonvolant terrestrial mammal species in Madagascar, one of the biodiversity hotspots with the highest rates of habitat loss and fragmentation. We refined species' geographic ranges based on habitat preferences and elevation limits and then estimated which habitat fragments were too small to support a population for at least 100 years given stochastic population fluctuations. We also evaluated whether time-lagged effects would change the threat status of species according to the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment framework. We used allometric relationships to obtain the population parameters required to simulate the population dynamics of each species, and we quantified the consequences of uncertainty in these parameter estimates by repeating the analyses with a range of plausible parameter values. Based on the median outcomes, we found that for 34 species (22% of the 157 species) at least 10% of their current habitat contained unviable populations. Eight species (5%) had a higher threat status when accounting for time-lagged effects. Based on 0.95-quantile values, following a precautionary principle, for 108 species (69%) at least 10% of their habitat contained unviable populations, and 51 species (32%) had a higher threat status. Our results highlight the need to preserve continuous habitat and improve connectivity between habitat fragments. Moreover, our findings may help to identify species for which time-lagged effects are most severe and which may thus benefit the most from conservation actions.
- Research Article
54
- 10.1016/j.biocon.2014.09.039
- Oct 19, 2014
- Biological Conservation
Accounting for conservation: Using the IUCN Red List Index to evaluate the impact of a conservation organization
- Research Article
203
- 10.1098/rstb.2011.0116
- Sep 27, 2011
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
A recent complete assessment of the conservation status of 5487 mammal species demonstrated that at least one-fifth are at risk of extinction in the wild. We retrospectively identified genuine changes in extinction risk for mammals between 1996 and 2008 to calculate changes in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI). Species-level trends in the conservation status of mammalian diversity reveal that extinction risk in large-bodied species is increasing, and that the rate of deterioration has been most accelerated in the Indomalayan and Australasian realms. Expanding agriculture and hunting have been the main drivers of increased extinction risk in mammals. Site-based protection and management, legislation, and captive-breeding and reintroduction programmes have led to improvements in 24 species. We contextualize these changes, and explain why both deteriorations and improvements may be under-reported. Although this study highlights where conservation actions are leading to improvements, it fails to account for instances where conservation has prevented further deteriorations in the status of the world's mammals. The continued utility of the RLI is dependent on sustained investment to ensure repeated assessments of mammals over time and to facilitate future calculations of the RLI and measurement against global targets.
- Research Article
35
- 10.1007/s10531-021-02119-5
- Feb 19, 2021
- Biodiversity and Conservation
The list of threatened species (Red List), established by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), aims to provide global assessments on the extinction risk of species. However, protecting vulnerable populations requires establishing threat criteria at sub-global scales, e.g., national Red Lists. In data-poor contexts, typical of many developing countries, assessing threat status by applying IUCN criteria constitutes a major challenge, which may be one reason for mismatches between national and global Red List assessments. Despite the intense harvesting of threatened elasmobranchs species in Brazilian waters, Brazilian fisheries monitoring has ceased to exist for nearly a decade. This jeopardizes accurate assessment of species’ conservation status at a local scale. In the absence of fisheries records, local ecological knowledge (LEK) provides an alternative option to obtain reliable information on targeted species. We interviewed 186 fishers from four Brazilian Northeastern states, whose recollections spanned six decades and documented catches or sightings of 19 shark species. For eight species with sufficient data, temporal trends in maximum length of sharks caught by fishers of different age-classes were statistically tested. Four species’ maximum length declined over time, while four were primarily captured by elderly fishers, with few or no recent catches reported. Of these species, one is classified more conservatively in the national Red List vs. IUCN Red List, which is supported by LEK results. Contrastingly, two species are classified less conservatively at the national level than by IUCN, such that upgrading and matching IUCN’s conservation criteria is warranted. We suggest that LEK provides support for conservation status listing in data-poor contexts.
- Research Article
63
- 10.1111/cobi.13022
- Oct 12, 2017
- Conservation Biology
International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats).
- Preprint Article
- 10.5194/oos2025-923
- Mar 25, 2025
The international trade of threatened marine species as seafood poses significant challenges for biodiversity conservation and undermines global sustainability goals. While illegal fishing contributes to these threats, many national and international policies permit the legal harvest and trade of threatened species, creating a fundamental conflict with conservation objectives.The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species provides the world's most comprehensive assessment of species' conservation status and extinction risks. However, threats and species' extinction risks at regional levels can differ significantly from global assessments, leading many countries to develop their own national threatened species lists. For instance, the Orange Roughy is classified as "Vulnerable" on the IUCN Red List in Europe, but listed as "Endangered" under Australia's Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act.While previous studies have analyzed trade patterns using IUCN listings alone, incorporating national threatened species lists can provide a more complete picture of how international trade affects endangered species. Our research compiles national threatened species lists from around the world to examine how major seafood trading nations engage in trade of species listed as threatened under their own biodiversity conservation policies, and identifies the mechanisms that enable such trade. By analyzing the interaction between national conservation frameworks and international trade patterns, we identify critical gaps where trade practices conflict with domestic species protection policies. Our findings suggest specific targets for strengthening domestic conservation measures and highlight opportunities to better align international trade policies with biodiversity protection and sustainability goals.
- Research Article
- 10.1371/journal.pbio.3003422
- Oct 21, 2025
- PLOS Biology
Human-induced environmental pressures are expected to intensify worldwide during the 21st century. Consequently, future-focused tools and approaches to anticipate pressures on biodiversity are key to effectively prioritize conservation actions and supplement existing approaches. Here, we develop a continuous conservation prioritization index, the Proactive Conservation Index (PCI), that integrates projected future extrinsic threats and traits that can predispose species’ vulnerability. We used the PCI to assess the conservation priority of 33,560 species of land vertebrates worldwide, compared our results to the extinction risk categories of these species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, and examined spatial and phylogenetic patterns in these species future conservation needs. We found that median PCI scores broadly followed the order expected under the IUCN Red List classification, but varied substantially within each IUCN Red List category. According to the PCI, reptiles will be the group of land vertebrates with highest conservation priority in the future, despite amphibians currently having the highest proportion of threatened species according to the IUCN Red List. The PCI revealed that species in the Near Threatened category will have future conservation needs more similar to species in threatened categories than to species in the Least Concern category. Arid ecoregions, tropical montane forests, and islands showed the highest differences between conservation priorities set using the PCI and the IUCN Red List, indicating possible unrecognized future conservation needs. The proportion of threatened species according to the IUCN Red List was uncorrelated with the protected area coverage of each ecoregion, while the PCI, by design, highlighted currently unprotected ecoregions with sensitive fauna that will have high exposure to threats in the future. We produced a user-friendly web application to display our results and an R package to enable users to calculate PCI scores for any taxon and region, customizing the index according to the severity of predicted threats and importance of species attributes in other systems. Our novel index can help practitioners prioritize fine-scale species conservation actions in light of future threats and different global change scenarios.
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