Abstract
Global biodiversity indicators can be used to measure the status and trends of biodiversity relating to Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) targets. Whether such indicators can support decision makers by distinguishing among policy options remains poorly evaluated. We tested the ability of two CBD indicators, the Living Planet Index and the Red List Index, to reflect projected changes in mammalian populations in sub-Saharan Africa in response to potential policies related to CBD targets for protected areas (PAs). We compared policy scenarios to expand the PA network, improve management effectiveness of the existing network, and combinations of the two, against business as usual. Both indicators showed that more effective management would provide greater benefits to biodiversity than expanding PAs alone. The indicators were able to communicate outcomes of modeled scenarios in a simple quantitative manner, but behaved differently. This work highlights both the considerable potential of indicators in supporting decisions, and the need to understand how indicators will respond as biodiversity changes.
Highlights
Ambitious targets were agreed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, COP10 2010), in response to failure to meet their previous goal of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (Butchart et al 2010)
An indicator used to inform decision makers about the most effective policy must be able to discriminate among the predicted impacts of different policy options (Collen & Nicholson 2014)
For our highly stylized model, both CBD indicators clearly demonstrated that policies to increase management effectiveness (ME) were more beneficial for biodiversity than those that only expanded protected areas (PAs) coverage
Summary
Ambitious targets were agreed by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, COP10 2010), in response to failure to meet their previous goal of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 (Butchart et al 2010). Attention has recently turned to whether biodiversity indicators could be used proactively to generate predictions of different policy outcomes (Nicholson et al 2012; Collen & Nicholson 2014; Visconti et al 2015). Two key measures of PAs’ contribution to conservation are extent of coverage and effectiveness at conserving biodiversity. The CBD’s latest target is for 17% of terrestrial areas and 10% of marine areas to be in effectively managed PAs by 2020 (COP10 2010). While PA coverage is measured, indicators of effectiveness remain
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