Maize Area and Production Forecasting in Eastern Region of Madhya Pradesh: An Application of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Abstract

Maize is an important crop in India. In this study an attempt has been made to forecast the area and production of maize crop in Madhya Pradesh, India. The Madhya Pradesh is one of the traditional and potential maize producing state in the country. Its production and productivity in the recent time call for major concern. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model have been fitted and projection was made on the basis of the best fitted ARIMA model for acreage and production. Time Series data covering the period of 19901991 to 2011-2012 was used for the Study. The maize area and production forecasts for 2012-13 to 202526 for all the selected districts in the region were made in this study. This projection is important as it helps in framing good policies with respect to relative production, price structure as well as consumption of maize in the region and in the state as a whole. The projection results reflected that maize will play vital role to solve food security problem in the region and in the state in general. Thus, policy makers, stake holders and beneficiaries (farmers) should take necessary steps to check the decline trend in area under maize production without further delay.