Forecasting of Maize Production in Bangladesh using ARIMA and Mixed Model Approaches

Abstract

Maize (_Zea maysL._) is the most vital cereal crop in Bangladesh and, after rice and wheat, it is also the leading crop of the world. Maize is the highest-yielding grain crop, having multiple uses. It serves as a primary raw material for the production of feed, food, fodder, and fuel. Thus, maize can play an important role as an alternative and a multipurpose food crop in Bangladesh. This study considered the BBS-published secondary yearly maize data, including area and production in Bangladesh, over the period 1970-71 to 2019-20. The best-selected Box-Jenkins ARIMA model is ARIMA (0, 2, 1) for forecasting maize production all over Bangladesh. When the area of maize is considered in the mixed model, i.e., ARIMA (1, 0, 0) is the best model rather than the univariate ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model. The length of the 95% confidence interval of the forecast value for the mixed model is smaller than that for the ARIMA model. Therefore, the forecasting performance of the mixed model is better than that of the econometric model like ARIMA; the reason could be the consideration of an explanatory variable like area. Thus, the mixed model approach can be applied for policy decisions based on the forecasting of maize production in Bangladesh.