Macroscale altimetry-based estimation and analyses of wave power: A foundation of wave energy development over Canada

Abstract

Wave power is essential to carbon neutrality and other energy strategies. Its estimation and analyses at macroscales are enabled by extensive satellite altimetric data, but several challenges or questions exist. Thus, this study develops an advanced macroscale altimetry-based wave-power estimation and analysis (WPEA) method through integrating regionalized ensemble estimates of wave heights, wind speeds and wave periods, models of wave energy flux, indices of flux variabilities and wave power potentials, and statistical analyses of associations between wave power and selected externalities (e.g., offshore distances, water depths, ice-free days, and wind speeds). The method is applied to all Canadian waters, which reveals a series of findings. For instance, Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, St. Lawrence, and Davis Strait in Canada are suitable for harvesting wave energy, because of considerable fluxes and low variabilities of wave energy at various timescales. Annual total wave power (approximately 2.04 PWh) largely exceeds national electricity consumption (249 TWh in 2021). The regionalized ensemble estimation helps WPEA enhance wave-power estimation accuracy under significant effects of data uncertainty. At the national scale, high wave power tends to be produced over remote, deep, windy, eastern waters and, without the consideration of technological applicability, over ice-free, southern waters. Potential associations of wave power with the externalities present seasonalities and heterogeneities under intensification effects of power-externality covariations and tech-applicability restrictions. Besides advancing wave-power estimation, analyses and modeling at macroscales (including the globe), this study provides data and scientific supports for studies and practices of local, regional and national wave energy development over Canada.