Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain

Abstract

The yield gap (YG) between the potential yields (Yp) and the average on-farm yields (Ya) is an indicator of the potential improvement for crop production. Understanding how large the current gap is and how this gap has changed over the past few decades is essential for increasing wheat production to meet increased food demand in China. This paper describes a study conducted using an APSIM-Wheat model and farm-level crop yield to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the yield gap of winter wheat from 1981 to 2010 in the North China Plain. Nine varieties were calibrated and evaluated based on the data from 16 agro-meteorological experimental sites and then potential yields were estimated considering cultivar replacement. In addition, a trend pattern analysis of on-farm yields for the period 1981–2010 was conducted. Results revealed an estimated yield gap across the entire North China Plain region of 1140–6810kgha−1, with a weight average of 3630kgha−1 in 1981–2010. Expressed as a relative yield (yield gap % of potential yields), the range was 15–80%, and the weight average was 45%. Despite the negative effects of increasing temperature and decreasing radiation, the potential yields significantly increased by 45kgha−1 per year due to cultivar improvement. On-farm yields increased even more notably because of new cultivar selection, increased fertilizer application and other management improvements, but were stagnating in 32.3% of wheat areas, located mainly in Hebei province, Shandong province, Beijing and Tianjin. The improvement of on-farm yields have substantially contributed to yield gap spatio-temporal variation. As a result, the yield gap decreased from 4200kgha−1 (56%) in 1981–1990 to 3000kgha−1 (35%) in 2001–2010 at a rate of −69kgha−1 per year. However, yields stagnation will expand to the northern Henan province without cultivar potential productivity improving, where yield gap was close to or less than 20% of the potential yields and proved difficult to reduce. To further improve the total production of winter wheat in the coming decades, efforts should be paid to break the potential ceiling and reduce the yield gap by breeding higher yield variety and introduction of new agricultural technology.