Long-term Projection of CO2 Emissions from Iron and Steel Production Considering Production and Technology Change

Abstract

We simulate CO2 emissions from global iron and steel sector until 2050 in the case of no political intervention. In this study, we project future economic activity level of each country/region by macro economic model. And we estimate production of all country/region simultaneously by international trade model which considers domestic and international market equilibrium. And we simulate CO2 emissions by technology bottom-up type model. As a result, global steel production is projected to be 2324 Mt in 2050. And CO2 emissions are projected to be 3717 MtCO2 in 2050 which is an increase by 2044MtCO2 from year 2000. In that case, CO2 reduction from technology fixed case, which means reduction by technologies change, is estimated to be 1360MtCO2. It is also shown emission growth in China and India during 2000-2050 accounts for 75% of world emission growth in the same period.