Abstract
This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO2 emissions. Without climate policy, the future projections based on the SSP2 scenario show a rapid increase in the consumption of steel and cement over the next few decades, after which demand levels are projected to stabilize. This implies that over the scenario period, CO2 emissions are projected to peak in the next decades followed by a decrease below 2010 levels in 2050. There is considerable scope to mitigate CO2 emissions from steel and cement industries, leading to resp. 80–90% and 40–80% reduction below 2010 in 2050 for a high carbon tax of 100 $/tCO2+4%pa depending on the availability of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS).
Highlights
The heavy industry sector, such as steel and cement production, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions
We present a model for the steel and cement industry that is calibrated to key historical trends with respect to patterns of steel and cement consumption and choices between production technologies
The future projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2) scenario show a rapid increase in the consumption of steel and cement over the few decades, after which demand levels are projected to stabilize
Summary
The heavy industry sector, such as steel and cement production, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Growth rates between 2 and 4% per year (Saygin, 2012) were driven by a rapid increase in global demand from various sectors of the economy such as automotive and construction. In the 1980–2010 period, the global production of steel and cement nearly doubled and more than tripled, respectively. A large share of this growth is related to increased production in China: nearly 90% of the increase in global steel production emissions occurred in China (World Steel Association, 2015). Demand in China has recently slowed down and is expected to do so further (World Steel Association, 2015), in other developing regions ongoing industrialization may still lead to rapid growth in steel demand over the decades. Understanding consumption and production trends of steel and cement is impor-
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