Long-term groundwater storage variations estimated in the Songhua River Basin by using GRACE products, land surface models, and in-situ observations

Abstract

Influences of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the terrestrial water storage (TWS) change are significant in the mid- and high-latitude areas. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission has provided quantitative measurements of TWS changes with unprecedented accuracy at global, regional and basin scales. In this study, the noise level of various GRACE-derived TWS anomalies (TWSA) data were evaluated by using a generalized three-cornered hat (GTCH) method. A time-dependent weights approach was adopted to obtain a combined TWSA series over the Songhua River Basin (SRB) from 2003 to 2013. Monthly TWSA data during the past decades (1982–2002) were reconstructed by using an artificial neural network (ANN) approach with the good performance evaluated by the correlation coefficient of 0.89 and the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.79 over the study region. In-situ groundwater level measurements were used for validation of the groundwater storage (GWS) changes (estimated by using GRACE-derived TWS changes in association with the other simulated components of water storage changes from land surface models (LSMs)). The primary driving factors of spatiotemporal variations of GWS, as well as their inter-/intra-annually varying characteristics, were explored. The present study revealed that the variations of GWS featured a “downward fluctuations” (1982–1994), “stable upward” (1998–2008) and “decreasing dramatically” (2009–2013) period, respectively, over the SRB. In general, GWS had varied in a steady decline trend at a decreasing rate of 1.04 ± 0.59 mm year−1 from 1982 to 1994. With the enhanced climatic and anthropogenic influences over the region since 2000, several severe fluctuations characterized the GWS variations with occurrences of spring droughts and flooding over the region, which suggested significant effects of global changes posed on GWS variations of the region.