Long-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting for Future Power Systems Combining System Dynamics and ImPACT Equation

Abstract

Long-term electricity consumption forecasting has been a hot issue due to its importance in power systems planning. Recently, system dynamics (SD) have been considered a potential method for electricity consumption forecasting. However, traditional SD methods are failed in forecasting future power systems toward low-carbon, due to the complex influencing factors and the simple SD model structure. In this study, a novel method combining SD and the ImPACT equation is proposed to solve the above problem. First, a new influencing factor system including emerging factors is established to consider the development of future power system. Subsequently, the ImPACT equation is employed to decompose the electricity consumption into four subsystems. By doing this, the linkage between factors and electricity consumption can be better revealed, which helps to improve the forecasting accuracy. Next, models for quantifying the correlation between subsystems and factors are established using SD. Finally, the proposed method is verified by forecasting the power consumption of China in the future year 2030 to 2050. Furthermore, various scenarios are set to analyze the changing trend of future power consumption by different influencing factors. The results of this article can provide important basic information for power supply and power grid planning.