Research on Medium-and Long-term Electricity Consumption Forecasting Method Considering Long-term Constraints in Double Carbon Background

Abstract

Power demand forecasting is an important link in power planning. The conventional electricity consumption forecasting idea is simply based on historical data to extrapolate the trend, which only reflects the historical growth inertia of electricity consumption, without considering the influence of China’s long-term development strategy and energy policy on the growth trend of electricity consumption, which is likely to cause a big deviation between the forecast results and the actual growth trend. Affect the accuracy and credibility of the model. In this paper, we put forward the idea of electricity consumption forecasting considering the constraints of the long-term development scenario, that is, firstly, the annual electricity consumption level of the long-term level is comprehensively judged, then the Logistic curve with saturation characteristics is used to fit the growth process of electricity consumption, and the constraint of the long-term electricity consumption level is added in the parameter identification of the model. The established model can not only accurately reflect the historical growth trend of electricity consumption, but also be consistent with the long-term development trend of electricity consumption. Finally, the predicted value of annual electricity consumption at intermediate level is obtained by using the established model. The above method is applied to the national medium-and long-term electricity consumption forecast, which verifies the feasibility of this method, and has certain reference significance for the electricity demand forecast.