Long-term daily stream temperature record for Scotland reveals spatio-temporal patterns in warming of rivers in the past and further warming in the future

Abstract

Stream temperature is directly and indirectly affected by climate change. To be able to project future changes in stream temperature, historic trends and factors influencing these trends need to be understood. There is a demand for daily data to analyse historical trends and future changes in stream temperature. However, long-term daily stream temperature data are rare and observations of coarse temporal resolution (e.g. once-a-month) do not allow for robust trend analyses. Here, we present a methodology to reconstruct a national long-term daily stream temperature record (1960–2080) from 40 years of once-a-month observations (for 45 Scottish catchments). This involved implementing climatic and hydrological variables in generalized additive models. These models were then used in combination with regional climate projections (UKCP18 Strand 3 - RCP8.5) to predict future spatio-temporal temperature patterns.The results indicate that for the Scottish dataset (i) in addition to air temperature, the dominant environmental controls on stream temperature are unique combinations for each catchment; (ii) a general increase of up to 0.06 °C/year in historic stream temperature over all catchments resulted mainly from increases in spring and summer stream temperatures; (iii) future spatial patterns in stream temperature are more homogenous and differ therefore from the past where temperatures in N Scotland were relatively lower; (iv) future changes of up to +4.0 °C in annual stream temperature are strongest in those catchments which show lower stream temperature in the past (NW and W Scotland). These results are important in the context of water quality and stream temperature management. The methodology can be applied to smaller scale sites or to other national/global datasets enabling the analysis of historic trends and future changes at a high temporal resolution.