Longitudinal Spatial Trends in U.S. Pedestrian Fatalities, 1999–2020

Abstract

The number of pedestrian deaths from motor vehicle crashes in the U.S. has risen 59% since 2009. Several studies have researched crash characteristics—such as the people, vehicles, and roadways involved—when examining this sharp increase. But where are these fatalities occurring and what spatial characteristics of these locations could be influencing this trend? We looked at pedestrian fatality data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System and socioeconomic, demographic, and built environment data from the U.S. Census and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Smart Location Database for the study period of 1999–2020. After inputting the data into QGIS, we made graphs with 95% confidence intervals to analyze longitudinal trends in crash location characteristics and created heat maps of pedestrian fatality locations in nine large U.S. cities to compare clustering in the beginning of the study period (1999–2002) with clustering at the end (2017–2020). The results of this study indicate that pedestrian fatalities are moving away from downtown areas (with a 63.0% decrease in study cities’ downtowns) and are now happening more in suburbs (a 32.1% increase outside downtowns). Many of these suburbs are post-war suburbs that were built in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s and have low population and road densities and low levels of pedestrian commuting. Additionally, these fatalities are happening in neighborhoods with high proportions of minority residents, low educational attainment, and high poverty rates that are more than 60% above the national average.