Longevity in the light of the latest data

Abstract

The postwar development of old age life expectancy is one of generalized increase but with varying speed and many crossovers between countries. In general the increase in life expectancy was slower in the early decades and has later accelerated and it has been clear that the women live longer than men do and the difference has been growing. Merging data for 13 countries and dividing the 40 years that separate 1950-55 from 1990-95 into two periods of equal length it is noted that during the first period the mortality of women aged 80 years declined by 1.5% a year but that women aged 100 years by only 0.5%. However in the second period the decline of women aged 80 years accelerated to 2.5% a year while that of the centenarians was only slightly greater than before. In some countries mortality decline in men was altogether faster especially at ages near 80 years while in some others mortality of middle-aged men actually increased. Overall when the factors behind the decline in old age mortality operate without interference by causes of death more specific to middle age the result is an age profile of gradually declining progress as age advances.