Location Affordability and Regional Economic Resilience: Evidence from the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis

Abstract

The form and function of cities is in large part defined by the interrelationship between land development and transportation systems. This relationship has important implications for households, including how it shapes economic costs for housing and transportation. Understanding these cost burdens is relevant for transportation agencies that are developing policies, plans, and programs with the intent of improving affordability. This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between high housing cost burdens, high levels of vehicle ownership, demographic characteristics, and mortgage foreclosure. Using data from before the recent U.S. economic crisis, the analysis estimates the effects of pre-crisis characteristics of census tracts and metropolitan regions on foreclosure rates. Multi-dimensional measures of urban form are included to evaluate the effect of metro-level characteristics. The models indicate high shares of Black homeowners, high shares of Hispanic homeowners, and lower income levels are associated with increased foreclosure. Also important is the share of households with high housing cost burdens. High shares of households with high vehicle ownership levels are significantly and positively associated with default and foreclosure. This suggests the costs associated with the ownership of multiple vehicles contributed to households’ economic vulnerability, a vulnerability revealed by mortgage foreclosures. The results for the urban form factors are mixed. Although increased compactness of jobs and housing has a negative effect on foreclosure, increased development intensity across the entire metro region has a positive effect. These differential effects challenge broad-brush assertions of negative impacts of urban sprawl.