The Impact of Housing Submarkets and Urban Form on the Foreclosure Crisis in U.S. Urban Counties

Abstract

In this article, the authors introduce a novel way to define and measure housing submarkets in relation to foreclosures. Instead of the traditional methods of identifying submarkets a priori, this study uses an approach that empirically delineates housing submarkets based on spatial contiguity and housing attributes. The spatial clustering algorithm developed for this study identified submarkets in each of the urban counties. A spatial regression model was then used to assess the impact of submarket structure on foreclosure rates. In addition, the study also incorporates a measure of sprawl in its analysis. It was found that sprawling counties are not more likely to have higher rates of foreclosures compared with average rates. However, the counties with smaller and more fragmented housing submarkets are likely to have lower rates of foreclosures. The results suggest that urban form is less consequential than housing market structure in affecting U.S. housing market dynamics.