Linking Different Types of Crime Using Geographical and Temporal Proximity

Matthew Tonkin,John W Bond,Jessica Woodhams,Emma J Palmer,Ray Bull

doi:10.1177/0093854811418599

Matthew Tonkin, John W Bond + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854811418599

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Abstract

In the absence of forensic evidence (such as DNA or fingerprints), offender behavior can be used to identify crimes that have been committed by the same person (referred to as behavioral case linkage). The current study presents the first empirical test of whether it is possible to link different types of crime using simple aspects of offender behavior. The discrimination accuracy of the kilometer distance between offense locations (the intercrime distance) and the number of days between offenses (temporal proximity) was examined across a range of crimes, including violent, sexual, and property-related offenses. Both the intercrime distance and temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy that were comparable across and within crime types and categories. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed and recommendations made for future research.

Highlights

In the absence of forensic evidence, offender behavior can be used to identify crimes that have been committed by the same person
These findings suggest that discrimination accuracy using the intercrime distance and temporal proximity may function at a statistically significant level both within crime types and across crime types and categories
It was found that both the intercrime distance and temporal proximity achieved statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy when differentiating between a wide variety of linked and unlinked crimes

Summary

Introduction

In the absence of forensic evidence (such as DNA or fingerprints), offender behavior can be used to identify crimes that have been committed by the same person (referred to as behavioral case linkage). One potential alternative is to use behavioral similarity, whereby crimes that show evidence of similar offender behavior are judged to have been committed by the same offender/s (referred to as linked crimes), whereas those that involve different behavior are said to have been committed by different offenders (referred to as unlinked crimes) This procedure is known by several names, including linkage analysis and comparative case analysis, but the term behavioral case linkage will be used in the current paper. The success of behavioral case linkage in a practical context rests on offenders behaving in a consistent and distinctive manner throughout their crimes (Bennell, 2002; Woodhams et al, 2007). These assumptions of offender behavioral consistency and behavioral distinctiveness are the theory that underpins the practice of behavioral case linkage

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