Linkage analysis across different types of crime, by using geographical and temporal proximity

Abstract

A number of studies have investigated behavioral case linkage between crimes of a specified type, such as linking one residential burglary with another residential burglary. However, only a few studies have investigated the effectiveness of case linkage across crime types, which have been limited to the UK. This study examined whether linking across crime types using spatio-temporal proximity was possible in samples that were different from the UK in terms of the structure of crime classification. This was accomplished by calculating the discrimination accuracy between linked crime pairs (two offenses committed by the same offender) and unlinked crime pairs (two offenses committed by different offenders) using geographical (inter-crime distance) and temporal proximity (number of days between offenses) across various crimes committed in Japan. Both the geographical proximity and temporal proximity had statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime types as assessed by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests the possibility of identifying a crime series by geographical and temporal proximity across multiple crime types in Japan.