Lightning nowcasting using fuzzy logic — A risk assessment framework for resilience of microgrids

Abstract

This article presents a coordination strategy for microgrids by proposing dynamic actions for efficient energy management during a thunderstorm to mitigate the associated risk. The dynamic lightning protection system is integrated with a fuzzy logic-based lightning detection module developed using meteorological parameters, which generates an early warning at the onset of lightning and also indicates the threat level. To validate the fuzzy prediction model, the actual flashes recorded by lightning location systems are used, yielding a 98% probability of detection and a critical success index of about 75.2%. Furthermore, a risk-assessment framework is presented by estimating the probability of a particular thunderstorm rank. To mitigate the risk, power sharing commands are generated by the power system operator, conceived by implementing dq0 control of microgrid inverters. The noteworthy consequences of the proposed actions are evaluated, and the improvement in reliability indices is about 78% with dynamic actions.