Abstract
BackgroundCardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of lifetime risk have neither considered all CVRD together nor the relative contribution of major risk factors to combined disease burden.MethodsIn a population-based cohort study using national electronic health records, we studied 473,399 individuals with T2D in England 2007–2018. Lifetime risk of individual and combined major adverse renal cardiovascular events, MARCE (including CV death and CVRD: heart failure; chronic kidney disease; myocardial infarction; stroke or peripheral artery disease), were estimated, accounting for baseline CVRD status and competing risk of death. We calculated population attributable risk for individual CVRD components. Ideal cardiovascular health was defined by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, smoking, physical activity, diet, and body mass index (i.e. modifiable risk factors).ResultsIn individuals with T2D, lifetime risk of MARCE was 80% in those free from CVRD and was 97%, 93%, 98%, 89% and 91% in individuals with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, myocardial infarction, stroke and peripheral arterial disease, respectively at baseline. Among CVRD-free individuals, lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease was highest (54%), followed by CV death (41%), heart failure (29%), stroke (20%), myocardial infarction (19%) and peripheral arterial disease (9%). In those with HF only, 75% of MARCE after index T2D can be attributed to HF after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities. Compared with those with > 1, < 3 and ≥3 modifiable health risk behaviours, achieving ideal cardiovascular health could reduce MARCE by approximately 41.5%, 23.6% and 17.2%, respectively, in the T2D population.ConclusionsFour out of five individuals with T2D free from CVRD, and nearly all those with history of CVRD, will develop MARCE over their lifetime. Early preventive measures in T2D patients are clinical, public health and policy priorities.
Highlights
Cardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D)
There are an estimated 451 million people living with diabetes worldwide, increasing to 693 million by 2045 [2], with an annual cost US$1.31 trillion or 1.8% of global gross domestic product (GDP) [3]
There is relevance to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, where cardiovascular diseases (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), T2D and multi-morbidity are known to be associated with increased risk of infection and severe outcomes [9, 10], but the interplay of CVD, CKD and T2D is poorly characterised
Summary
Cardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). High fasting plasma glucose, which constitutes diabetes mellitus, ranks only behind high blood pressure and smoking (6.53 million [5.23–8.23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs) as a cause of global burden of disease [1]. Associations between T2D and increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are well-defined with international consensus guideline recommendations regarding preventive management [5, 6]. These diseases have been mainly studied in isolation rather than together, despite significant clinical overlap and frequent multi-morbidity. Better understanding of how these diseases cluster over the life course [11] is required in order to inform their management and prevention during and beyond the pandemic [12]
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