Abstract
CICE pre-Financing and Employment Effects : an ex post Evaluation. The ex post evaluation presented here endeavours to measure the potential effects of the CICE pre-financing mechanism on preserving jobs due to fewer company failures in 2013 and 2014. The econometric analysis is backed by exhaustive data from INSEE and the use of propensity score matching methods (Kernel, five nearest neighbours, and Caliper). The results indicate that the pre-financed firms could have destroyed around 2,500 jobs (the effects range from approximately 900 to 4,000), if all else being equal, they had not received pre-financing. This effect only applies to firms with between 10 and 100 employees and only for 2013. Thus, the results of this study do not showa significant effect for very small firms (between 2 and 9 employees) or for firmswith more than 100 employees. The positive effect of pre-financing on safeguarding jobs in 2013 can be regarded as the upper end of the job preservation range, as a failed company may be forced out of the market.
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