Land Use and Land Cover Change Monitoring and Prediction of a UNESCO World Heritage Site: Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone Using Cellular Automata-Markov Model

Abstract

The Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone is located on the edge of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot region. In 1985, the Kaziranga National Park (KNP) was declared a World Heritage Site by UNESCO. Nowadays, anthropogenic interference has created a significant negative impact on this national park. As a result, the area under natural habitat is gradually decreasing. The current study attempted to analyze the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone using remote sensing data with CA-Markov models. Satellite remote sensing and the geographic information system (GIS) are widely used for monitoring, mapping, and change detection of LULC change dynamics. The changing rate was assessed using thirty years (1990–2020) of Landsat data. The study analyses the significant change in LULC, with the decrease in the waterbody, grassland and agricultural land, and the increase of sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas. Between 1990 and 2020, waterbody, grassland, and agricultural land decreased by 18.4, 9.96, and 64.88%, respectively, while sand or dry river beds, forest, and built-up areas increased by 103.72, 6.96, and 89.03%, respectively. The result shows that the area covered with waterbodies, grassland, and agricultural land is mostly converted into built-up areas and sand or dry river bed areas. According to this study, by 2050, waterbodies, sand or dry river beds, and forests will decrease by 3.67, 3.91, and 7.11%, respectively; while grassland and agriculture will increase by up to 16.67% and 0.37%, respectively. The built-up areas are expected to slightly decrease during this period (up to 2.4%). The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the long-term management of the Kaziranga Eco-Sensitive Zone.