Kognitive Verzerrungen im forensischen Kontext – Zuverlässigere Risikobeurteilungen durch Debiasing?

Abstract

Although the validity of forensic risk assessment has been in the focus of academic research in forensic mental health for the last 40 to 50 years, the quality of such assessments is still only moderately satisfactory on average. On one hand, there have been numerous attempts to improve the quality of assessments by developing new instruments or revising the content criteria of existing instruments. On the other hand, significant findings from decision psychology regarding the effect of cognitive biases on processes of judging have hardly found their way into the scientific debate so far. Consequently, there is also a lack of in-depth consideration of measures that counteract cognitive biases by applying debiasing strategies. However, erroneous judgements in the field of forensic mental health can cause severe consequences for individuals as well as for society. Therefore, sound empirical examination of debiasing strategies and their relevance to improve the validity of risk assessment is strongly recommended.