Journey to burning half of global coal: Trajectory and drivers of China׳s coal use

Abstract

China has a coal addiction that has worsened over time. Its share of the world׳s total final coal consumption more than doubled over the past decade. This fast growth of coal consumption presents serious challenges to the country׳s carbon emission. In 2011, burning coal contributed 72% of China׳s CO2 emission and 19% of global CO2. A better understanding of the trajectory and drivers of Chinese coal usage will help catalyse Chinese efforts to kick its heavy addiction to coal. We analyze China׳s coal consumption during 1955–2011 using time-series data energy consumption, population, gross domestic product, and industrial production. Based on the change of its total coal consumption and coal consumption intensity, China׳s coal use for 1955–2011 is divided into six phases. Next, this paper quantifys the driving forces in each phase and drivers of coal consumption intensity, using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique. The result shows there is a strong positive correlation between economic growth and coal consumption, the coal intensity and economic output of second industry is the leading contributor to change of coal consumption intensity. Three policy recommendations are offered for China kicking its coal habit. This paper argues that improving coal consumption efficiency is the more optimum policy.