Abstract

The aim of this paper is to find the trough price corridor that the current decline in crude oil price would attain and the length of time it would take before it regains recovery. Following Kanda (2011) simple calibration and geometric progression were used for the analysis of secondary data collected. It was found that crude oil price would continue to decline until it reaches $52.2pb (with a band of ±$10.2pb) and then revive after a month, 2 weeks and 4 days from December 2014. The paper concludes that it would be safe to set the crude oil benchmark for Nigeria’s 2015 budget within a corridor of $42pb to $62.4pb to allow for savings in the Sovereign Wealth Fund.

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