Jihadist disengagement and deradicalization in France and Belgium

Abstract

Although jihadist organizations continue to attract large numbers of people in their wake, particularly from Europe, their recruitment capacity should not mask the difficulties they are currently encountering. In the face of the military setbacks suffered by Caliph al-Baghdadi's organization, experts have noted not only a decline in departures to areas controlled by the Islamic State, but also difficulties in keeping members within the organization. Many of its supporters have decided to desert, abandoning the armed struggle. This phenomenon is confirmed by a King's College study led by Peter Neumann, which claims that between 20% and 30% of jihadists decide to return to their country of origin. This report is based on the testimony of 58 "deserters" from the Islamic State, including nine from Western Europe and Australia, who have publicly recounted their reasons for leaving. In France, according to a report by the Criminal Affairs Directorate, more than 200 individuals have returned from Syria and Iraq. This phenomenon of jihadist defection is not new. It was already observed in the 1970s-1990s among armed Islamic groups in Algeria (GIA, Armée islamique du Salut, Groupe salafiste de prédication et de combat) , Morocco (Shabiba islâmiyya) , or Egypt (Islamic jihad and Gamâ'a islâmiyya) , for example.