JAPAN-US-CHINA: A NEW STRATEGIC TRIANGLE? THE IMPACT ON KOREA

Abstract

Abstract The emergence of a new triangle among the US, Japan, and China has overshadowed the preceding relationship among the US, the former Soviet Union, and China although the structure is relatively infantile, unstable, and loose. Due to the radical shift in power capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region, and theluctuation in economic, technological, military, political, and socio-economic foundations of national power, the bilateral basis of the triangular structure is more unstable than was the case in the past. Diverging political structures, decision-making systems, belief systems, leadership factors, misperceptions, as well as systemic dynamics are impacting on individual state behavior. The significance of internal sources of foreign policy is nowhere more important than the inter-Korean process, where weapons proliferation, and possible regime collapse pose serious security challenges. The concerned outside powers must recognize the inherent limitations of their influence on Pyongyang's evolution, and the domestic conditions that drive Pyongyang's adventurous policy. Here, the recognition that only Kim Jong-il as of this moment can drive through any limited reform in the context of military/political guarantees to his regime, most probably from China and Russia, and possibly from the US, and South Korea must be made. In order to facilitate this process, outside powers must encourage “reKoreanization” of the inter-Korean process. In this regard, a gradual autonomization of national security in South Korea is essential.